The cost of eggs tends to increase during outbreaks of bird flu, as the disease leads to losses of egg-laying hens. However, the magnitude of price increases depends on the severity and location of bird flu outbreaks. In general, limited outbreaks in specific regions have a minimal impact on national egg prices, while widespread epidemics can cause more significant cost increases.
What is bird flu?
Bird flu, also known as avian influenza, is a viral disease that primarily infects birds but can also spread to humans. There are many different strains of avian influenza viruses. Some are low pathogenic strains that cause minor symptoms, while others are highly pathogenic strains that can lead to severe illness and death in birds. Two main types of bird flu that have impacted the US egg industry in recent years are H5N2 and H5N8.
How do bird flu outbreaks affect egg prices?
Bird flu outbreaks reduce egg supply, leading to higher prices, through a few key mechanisms:
- Loss of layer hens: Bird flu causes high rates of illness and mortality in commercial egg-laying chicken flocks, directly reducing the number of hens laying eggs.
- Culling: When bird flu is detected on a farm, entire infected flocks are typically culled (killed) to contain the disease’s spread. This further diminishes egg supply.
- Quarantines and movement restrictions: During outbreaks, farms located near infected premises are often quarantined and unable to ship eggs. Even in unaffected regions, enhanced biosecurity measures and restrictions on poultry movement can disrupt egg supply chains.
- Reduced production: Stressed or infected surviving hens tend to lay fewer eggs.
- Consumer demand: Disease outbreaks sometimes spur increased consumer demand for eggs and other protein sources, as people avoid purchasing poultry meat.
With lower supply and higher demand, egg prices increase. The size of this effect varies based on the scale of production losses relative to total supply.
US egg industry overview
To understand bird flu’s potential impact on egg prices, it helps to first look at some key facts about the US egg industry:
- The US produces over 100 billion eggs per year, making it the world’s largest egg producer.
- Around 325 million egg-laying hens are in operation across the country.
- Egg production is concentrated mostly in the Midwest and South Atlantic states.
- Iowa, Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Texas are the top egg-producing states.
- Most commercial egg farms house tens of thousands to over a million hens each.
- Per capita egg consumption has trended upward over the past several decades, reaching 279 eggs in 2021.
Egg price trends
Over the past 15 years, retail egg prices have fluctuated between about $1 to $3 per dozen, trending upward over time. Here are national average prices for a dozen Grade A large eggs from the USDA, including during recent bird flu outbreaks:
| Year | Average Price Per Dozen |
|---|---|
| 2008 | $1.90 |
| 2009 | $1.28 |
| 2010 | $1.28 |
| 2011 | $1.50 |
| 2012 | $1.66 |
| 2013 | $1.41 |
| 2014 | $1.86 |
| 2015 (H5N2 outbreak) | $2.03 |
| 2016 | $1.21 |
| 2017 | $1.05 |
| 2018 | $1.11 |
| 2019 | $1.25 |
| 2020 | $1.42 |
| 2021 | $1.67 |
| 2022 (H5N1 outbreak) | $3.59 |
Egg prices tend to follow boom and bust cycles. Prices typically peak around the winter holidays and decline in late spring and summer as production ramps up. Normal seasonal fluctuations range around $0.50 per dozen.
2015 H5N2 avian flu outbreak
In 2015, a severe H5N2 avian influenza epidemic impacted the Midwestern US, leading to:
- Over 48 million bird deaths and cullings
- $1.6 billion in industry losses
- Egg prices that were 75% higher than the prior year
At the outbreak’s peak from June to August, egg prices reached as high as $2.75 to $3.00 per dozen at the retail level. However, prices moderated later in the year as the outbreak was brought under control and production recovered. Supplies were able to rebound quickly because the disease did not spread to all egg-producing regions.
2022 H5N1 avian flu outbreak
In 2022, a severe H5N1 epidemic has impacted poultry across the US, driving up egg prices to record levels. As of October 2022:
- Over 58 million birds have been affected.
- Egg prices reached a record national average of $4.25 per dozen in September.
- cases have occurred in most major egg production areas including Iowa, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Texas, and California.
Widespread quarantines and flock losses have reduced the egg supply to the point where prices are more than double typical levels. Retail prices have come down slightly since the September peak but remain over $3.50 per dozen nationally as of mid-October.
When will egg prices return to normal?
Experts expect egg prices to remain elevated at least through the end of 2022 due to the ongoing H5N1 outbreak’s impacts. However, prices should gradually moderate as production starts to recover once the epidemic comes under control. The egg industry is working to rebuild flocks, but it will take time to replace the tens of millions of lost hens. It is unlikely that prices will return to pre-outbreak levels until well into 2023 or later.
Long-term impacts of bird flu
Epidemics like the 2022 H5N1 outbreak may become more common due to the rise of highly pathogenic avian influenza strains. This could lead to higher average egg prices going forward. However, prices will still fluctuate seasonally and tend to decrease in between outbreaks. The egg industry will adapt by improving biosecurity practices and diversifying supply across different regions to mitigate future bird flu risks.
While outbreak severity and price spikes vary year-to-year, bird flu creates an ongoing risk of periodic egg supply disruptions. Consumers may need to become accustomed to paying a bit more for eggs, especially at certain times of year.
Options for cost-conscious consumers
When egg prices rise during bird flu outbreaks, cost-conscious consumers can:
- Substitute cheaper protein sources like beans in recipes when possible.
- Buy egg whites or egg beaters instead of whole eggs.
- Look for egg sales and promotions at the grocery store.
- Turn to discount stores like Aldi for lower prices.
- Buy egg cartons with misprinted branding or packaging damage at a discount.
- Purchase eggs at farmers markets or direct from local farms.
- Reduce food waste and get creative using leftovers in omelets or baked goods.
With some flexibility, home cooks can adapt to maintain affordable egg consumption even when prices are up due to events like bird flu outbreaks.
Key takeaways
- Bird flu outbreaks lead to egg supply reductions, pushing prices higher.
- The 2015 H5N2 event led to a 75% national price increase at its peak.
- The 2022 H5N1 outbreak has more than doubled egg prices due to widespread impacts.
- Prices are expected to remain high through 2022 but should gradually moderate as supply recovers.
- Consumers can employ different strategies to cope with temporarily higher costs.
While challenging, bird flu outbreaks are a manageable part of the modern egg production system. With smart responses by industry and consumers, the impacts on costs and availability can be reduced until the crisis passes.
