A bird in hand argument is a type of logical fallacy where someone argues for keeping what one already has, rather than risking losing it for the sake of possible gains. The phrase “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush” encapsulates the idea that it is better to hold onto something one has already obtained rather than taking a risk and trying to get something better, but potentially ending up with nothing. Here are some examples of the bird in hand fallacy:
Personal Finance
John has a stable job that he doesn’t love but that pays well and has good benefits. He is thinking about quitting and trying to start his own business, which could potentially make him very successful but is also risky. His friend advises him against it, saying “I’d hold onto that bird in the hand if I were you. Your job might not be glamorous but it pays the bills. Trying to start that business is a shot in the dark.” This is an example of the bird in hand fallacy – his friend is overvaluing the stability of what John already has versus taking a risk for something that could be better.
Relationships
Jill has been dating Dan for 6 months. The relationship is pretty good – they get along well, have fun together, and Jill feels she could see a future with Dan. However, she doesn’t feel the relationship is amazing and has a bit of a crush on her coworker Jack. She is thinking about breaking up with Dan to explore things with Jack, but her best friend warns “Dan is a great guy who you know you’re compatible with. Jack is just a fantasy right now – he could end up being a horrible partner in reality! A bird in hand is worth two in the bush.” This is an example of the fallacy – Jill’s friend is overvaluing the decent relationship she has now versus taking a chance on one that could potentially be better.
Career
Kevin has worked at his company for 5 years. He’s up for a promotion to a manager position soon. However, he was recently offered a job at another company which would allow him to jump straight into a manager role. The role at the new company could be great, but it’s at a less stable startup. Kevin’s mentor tells him “I’d take the guaranteed promotion at your current job – it’s better to have that bird in hand then take a risky jump to another company that may not work out.” This is an example of the fallacy – Kevin’s mentor is overestimating the value of a promotion at his current job versus taking a risk on advancing his career faster somewhere else.
In Summary
The bird in hand argument, while it can sometimes seem reasonable on the surface, makes the mistake of overweighting what someone already has versus taking a risk on something new that could potentially be better. However, in reality, there are times where it makes sense to take risks for further gains. When making a major life decision, it’s important to carefully analyze the pros and cons of the “bird in hand” versus the “two in the bush” rather than just automatically assuming the bird in hand is the best option because it provides more immediate security or gratification.
Table Comparing Bird in Hand vs Potential Gains
| Bird in Hand | Potential Gains |
|---|---|
| Provides more immediate security | Could provide much higher payoff long-term |
| Lower risk option | Higher risk, but higher reward potential |
| Don’t have to take any major action | Requires initiative to make change happen |
| Typically provides a “decent” if mediocre outcome | Outcome could surpass current situation or fail entirely |
| Often easier option with less work | Typically requires time, effort and discomfort to obtain gains |
Examples of When Risk for Gains is Worth It
While the bird in hand fallacy mistakenly assumes it’s always best to hold onto what you have, there are many scenarios where taking a risk can pay off:
- Asking for a raise or promotion at work – Could substantially increase income long-term
- Leaving a job for better career opportunities – Potential to advance further in career
- Ending an unfulfilling relationship – Chance to find love and compatibility
- Moving to a new city – Can lead to new experiences
- Starting a business – Financial and personal freedom if succeeds
- Investing money instead of leaving it in savings – Compounding returns over decades
In each of these cases, while staying with the “bird in hand” may feel more secure, taking a risk and putting in effort for greater gains often pays off down the road. Weighing when that risk is worthwhile versus when it makes sense to play it safe is key.
How to Evaluate When to Take Risks
When faced with a bird in hand decision, here are some steps to logically evaluate if taking a risk is right:
- Write out pros and cons of both options
- Evaluate the short and long-term payoffs of each
- Consider the downside risks and potential rewards thoroughly
- Discuss options with mentors or advisors to get input
- Determine if situation is temporary or permanent if no change made
- Assess level of personal drive for change versus complacency
- Make tentative decision then re-evaluate after a few days with fresh eyes
With rational analysis, in many cases the potential gains end up looking more appealing than the safety of the bird in hand. And even when they don’t, it leads to better clarity around why staying put is the right call for your situation.
Conclusion
The bird in hand fallacy proposes that you should always hold onto what you already have rather than striving for something potentially better. However, in many life scenarios, taking calculated risks can pay off in the long run. When choosing between playing it safe versus pursuing greater rewards, carefully weigh the pros and cons of each option. With smart analysis of the trade-offs and risks, taking the plunge is often the best bet over clinging to the mediocrity of a bird in hand out of fear.
