The price of turkey has risen significantly this year, leaving many consumers wondering why it costs so much to put a turkey on the table for the holidays. Several factors have combined to drive turkey prices higher in 2023.
Increased Costs for Turkey Farmers
Raising turkeys has become more expensive for farmers in recent years. The high costs start with purchasing turkey poults (baby turkeys). Due to increased demand and supply chain issues, poult prices rose 35% in 2022. Once turkeys are on the farm, the cost of feeding them has increased as grain prices have surged. Farmers are also paying more for transportation, labor, housing, and utilities. These input costs add up and must be passed on to consumers to keep turkey farms in business.
Disease Outbreaks
Outbreaks of avian influenza led farmers to lose over 8 million turkeys so far in 2022. With fewer turkeys being raised, tighter supply is also putting upward pressure on prices for holiday birds. The threat of avian flu remains active going into the 2023 season and may limit supply if more flocks get infected. The 2015 avian flu outbreak provides a good example of how turkey prices can spike when supply declines. Prices rose over 20% that year.
Thanksgiving Demand
Holiday demand for turkey is exceptionally high around Thanksgiving. In the weeks leading up to the holiday, turkey production increases to prepare for the surge in demand. For example, over 40 million turkeys were forecast to be produced for Thanksgiving 2022. High seasonal demand gives turkey sellers leverage to push prices higher. With fresh turkey in limited supply compared to demand, consumers have shown willingness to pay higher prices rather than go without.
Processing Bottlenecks
Getting turkeys processed into products for grocery stores has become a bottleneck in the supply chain. Labor shortages in meat processing plants are limiting capacity. As a result, processed turkey inventory is down over 15% compared to last year. Lower inventory of packaged turkey is enabling retailers and processors to charge more. Automation and expansion of processing capacity could help ease this bottleneck in the future.
Inflationary Pressures
Broad inflationary trends are also impacting turkey prices. General inflation hit 9.1% in June 2022, the highest in 40 years, before cooling to 7.7% in October. As disposable incomes decline and all prices rise, consumers have less resistance to high turkey prices. People still buy turkeys for tradition despite the cost. So retailers are comfortable charging more for turkeys compared to other proteins like chicken or pork.
How Turkey Prices Compare Historically
To understand the magnitude of this year’s high turkey prices, it helps to look at the historical data. The table below shows the average per pound cost of a frozen turkey hen in the weeks leading up to Thanksgiving. Prices in 2022 are up over 20% from last year and over 35% compared to the 2017-2019 average price.
| Year | Price Per Pound |
|---|---|
| 2022 | $1.99 |
| 2021 | $1.64 |
| 2020 | $1.20 |
| 2019 | $1.25 |
| 2018 | $1.36 |
| 2017 | $1.40 |
| 2017-2019 Average | $1.34 |
Will Turkey Prices Decline in 2023?
Given the variety of factors pushing turkey prices higher, further increases could occur in 2023. However, there are some hopeful signs that prices could stabilize or moderate next year:
– Poult supply is expected to increase as producers rebuild flocks. This should bring down the very high poult costs that turkey farms paid this year.
– If no major avian flu outbreaks occur, supplies are expected to rebound as lost flocks are replaced.
– Farmers will likely reduce production if turkey prices drop below profitable levels again. This would prevent oversupply.
– Processing plants are taking steps to address labor issues and increase capacity where possible.
– General inflationary pressures may continue to ease in 2023, reducing pressure on turkey prices.
So while turkey prices are likely to remain elevated compared to historical levels, some relief from 2022’s extreme highs appears possible. But unpredictables like the avian flu make forecasts especially difficult. Consumers eager for a Thanksgiving price break will have to wait and see what 2023 brings.
Ways to Save on Turkey
For consumers looking to keep turkey costs under control this holiday season, here are some money-saving tips:
– Buy early. Prices tend to rise further as Thanksgiving approaches. Shop before November if possible.
– Buy frozen. Fresh turkey costs more than frozen. Allow time to safely thaw frozen turkey in the refrigerator.
– Buy a smaller bird. A 12-15 lb turkey can feed most gatherings and costs less than a 20 lb plus turkey.
– Buy turkey parts. Buying an uncooked, boneless turkey breast costs less than a whole bird.
– Buy store brand. Opt for the store’s own brand of turkey rather than a name brand to save.
– Look for sales and coupons. Check ads and clip coupons for discounted turkeys.
– Skip the deli turkey. Head to the deli for sandwiches but avoid their premium-priced turkey.
– Cook stuffing separately. Baking stuffing in turkey adds to the size needed. Cook it separately to downsize turkey.
– Use leftovers wisely. Get creative with leftovers to stretch your turkey dollars into additional meals.
Outlook for Other Holiday Meats
While turkey prices have seen the biggest jump, other holiday meats are also costing consumers more this year. Here is a brief look at the pricing situation for other options:
Ham
The cost of fresh boneless ham has risen over 15% compared to last year. Processing bottlenecks and demand around Christmas are pushing up prices.
Beef
Ground beef and steak prices have moderated after hitting record highs in 2022 but remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic years. High feed costs continue to affect beef production economics.
Pork
Pork prices are up about 10% over last year after a spike during the summer. Ham and pork roast will cost more than recent holiday seasons.
Chicken
Boneless, skinless chicken breasts have seen a more modest 5-10% price increase. Poultry remains the most affordable meat protein option.
Lamb
Retail lamb leg prices are up 15-20% year-over-year. Tight global supplies have limited availability of lamb.
Seafood
Fresh salmon and frozen shellfish costs have risen 10-15% as seafood demand rebounds from the pandemic.
Making the Best of High Turkey Prices
While consumers would prefer to see lower turkey prices at the grocer, the reality is that economic conditions have enabled retailers to charge more this holiday season. Making the traditional centerpiece proteinstretch the family budget. However, there are ways to scale back portions and embellish the meal that still capture the joyful spirit of the holidays without breaking the bank. Getting creative with the entire menu can deliver a memorable feast. Ultimately, the gathering of family and friends matters more than the price per pound of turkey.
Conclusion
A variety of forces have combined to drive turkey prices over 20% higher than last year. Turkey farmers faced high input costs and disease outbreaks that reduced supply. Meanwhile, strong holiday demand, inflationary pressures, and processing bottlenecks enabled retailers to charge more for limited inventories of fresh and frozen turkeys. While prices may moderate somewhat in 2023, turkey will likely remain expensive compared to historical holiday seasons for the foreseeable future. Savvy shopping techniques, menu flexibility, and a festive spirit can still deliver a budget-friendly Thanksgiving meal that satisfies taste buds and traditions alike.
